Magnitude of road traffic injuries and factors associated with mortality, - Ilala Municipal Council, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 2016

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Road traffic accident-related injuries and deaths disproportionately affect persons in low- and middle-income countries. Accurate data are important for informed decision-making, which is limited by the incompleteness of existing data sources. Capture-recapture Methods: allow the combination of multiple data sources, which can improve the reliability of estimates. We estimated the magnitude of road traffic injuries and deaths using capture-recapture Methods:, and determined factors associated with mortality in Ilala Municipality, Tanzania.
We used a two-sample capture-recapture method to estimate the number of victims using police and health facility data from January through June 2016 in Ilala Municipal Council, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Victims were individuals who either got injury or died due to road traffic crash; a collision involving at least one moving vehicle with another vehicle, pedestrian, animal, stationary objects or a fall from the vehicle.
Probabilistic and manual Methods: were used to identify individuals found in both data sets. We used Chao’s lower bound formula to compute the estimated actual number of road traffic injuries and deaths. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with mortality adjusting for multiple confounders using stata software.
A total of 2,532 road traffic victims were reviewed; 1,398 and 1134 were from hospital and police data respectively with 249 matching. We estimated a total of 4,997 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4,515-5,480) road traffic injuries and deaths had occurred, corresponding to 652/100,000 persons annually. Being male (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] =13.5, 95%CI 1.7-110.2) and being involved in night-time accidents (AOR=3.7, 95%CI 1.4-9.5) increased odds of dying. Compared to persons ≤19 years, persons ≥40 years had reduced mortality (AOR=0.19, 95%CI 0.04-0.90).
The magnitude of road traffic injury and deaths in Ilala is substantially higher than what was reported using either hospital or police data individually. Interventions should be targeted to males, night-time driving, and persons ≤19 years to reduce road traffic crash mortality.

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