Spatial analysis of dengue in two endemic departments of Colombia: Antioquia and Caldas, 2015-2017

  • Vector-borne
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Background:
The World Health Organization states that dengue lethality should not exceed the 2% threshold since it is 98% preventable, when preventive activities of basic environmental sanitation and clinical management of the disease follow international guidelines. According to the official report of the Pan-American Health Organization, in Colombia, lethality due to severe dengue reached 19% in 2016, occupying the second place in the Americas. Environmental variables contribute to the understanding of dengue behavior. The objective was to identify risk areas influenced by meteorological variables with respect to the incidence of dengue in Antioquia and Caldas.

Methods:
The two endemic departments were taken as the geographic unit of interest. Global cluster analysis (high-low), local cluster analysis (Hot Spots Getis-Ord Gi) and semivariogram analysis were performed. A global linear ordinary least squares regression was performed with dengue incidence data and environmental variables: precipitation, temperature and altitude in Antioquia and Caldas from 2015 to 2017.

Results:
Cluster presence was evidenced for the incidence rate variable (p<0.05; z-score=2.052177). There is geographic variation regarding the influence of the meteorological variables of interest precipitation, temperature and altitude in some municipalities of Antioquia and Caldas in the subregions Urabá, Bajo Cauca, Norte, Nordeste and Magdalena Medio.

Conclusions:
These findings help to focalize areas of geographic interest in the study of this event. It is important to continue analyzing meteorological variables to better understand the influence of the environment on tropical diseases and to carry out spatial modeling of macro and microdeterminants such as: presence of the vector Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, circulating viral serotype, hydrographic characteristics, hydrological characteristics, public services (sewerage) and environmental sanitation activities.

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